波幅是炒家的朋友，若是價值投資者，就必須堅守基礎分析。
波幅是炒家的朋友，但推而廣之，「波幅是少數炒家的真正朋友」
，而大部分炒家輸錢的原因，只是以為波幅是自己朋友罷
2012年2月15日 星期三
投資成功需要分析與耐性
投資成功需要分析與耐性，前者大部分都有，後者十居其九個半都沒有。分析可從書本學到，耐性是性格問題。
學懂獨立思考，就會學會堅持，養成獨特的性格。
除了樂觀時過分樂觀，悲觀時過分悲觀，大部分人還犯了一個毛病，就是欠缺遠見，永遠被一個個框框限死着。
小投資者的眼光往往太過短淺，而企業家的目光着實長遠。
學懂獨立思考，就會學會堅持，養成獨特的性格。
除了樂觀時過分樂觀，悲觀時過分悲觀，大部分人還犯了一個毛病，就是欠缺遠見，永遠被一個個框框限死着。
小投資者的眼光往往太過短淺，而企業家的目光着實長遠。
財報分析常用公式
1.流動比率＝流動資產÷流動負債
又稱營運資金比率，為短期償債能力的代表性指標，比率高者，代表短期償債能力強，高、低標準視企業情況及同業標準而定，一般應大於1為宜。
2.速動比率＝速動資產÷流動負債
速動資產=流動資產-存貨
又稱酸性測驗比率，亦為企業短期償債能力的代表性指標，但期間比流動比率更短，一般以1為宜。
3.股東權益報酬率(ROE)＝稅後淨利÷平均股東權益總額
衡量股東所投入之資本，於一年內所產生的效益。此比率愈大愈佳，代表股東可分得利潤愈高。
4.總資產報酬率(ROA)＝(稅後淨利＋利息費用)÷平均總資產
衡量企業投入資產後，一年內所產生的效益。數額愈大，代表企業之資產的效益愈大。
加入利息費用的原因，乃是因企業是否向外借款，與企業營運績效並無關聯，但利息費用卻會減少淨利，讓投資者誤以為企業經營績效差，因此利息費用應加回。
5.財務槓桿指數＝ROE÷ROA又稱槓桿比率，為衡量企業未來是舉債有利(外來資金，採長期借款方式)，或是股東自己出資較有利(自有資金，亦即發行股票)。若此比率大於1，代表舉債有利，舉債可創造槓桿效果。
例如：公司向債權人借入$100,000，年利率5%，故每年要支付$5,000利息費用，此$100,000投資後，每年賺取利潤若超過$5,000，亦即利潤支付利息費用後尚有剩餘，可用來分配給股東(盈餘分配)，即具有槓桿效果，代表舉債有利，因為股東不必多出資，即可多分配盈餘。
6.普通股每股盈餘(EPS)＝稅後淨利÷普通股加權流通在外股數
表示企業當年度淨利若全數用以發放股利，普通股每股可分得的數額。數額愈大，代表企業獲利性愈高，對股東愈有利。
7.本益比(P/E)＝每股市價÷EPS表示股東投入的成本(即市價)所能獲取的利潤數額(即盈餘)，投入成本愈少而能獲得更多利潤，對股東愈有利，故股東多半希望本益比愈低愈好。
8.純益率＝稅後淨利÷銷貨淨額
表示企業每$1的售價中，可賺取的淨利數額，故此比率愈高，代表企業獲利能力愈大，為分析獲利能力的重要指標。
9.存貨週轉率＝銷貨成本÷平均存貨
代表一年期內，存貨出售的次數，次數愈高愈有利，代表商品出售速度快，存貨愈不易被囤積。
10.應收帳款週轉率＝銷貨淨額÷平均應收帳款
為一年期內，應收帳款收現次數，次數愈高愈有利，代表企業收帳能力愈強，資金運用成效高。
11.總資產週轉率＝銷貨淨額÷資產總額
衡量企業的自有資產有無閒置的狀況，若此比率和同業相比，比率愈小，代表企業資產利用率不高，表示資產有閒置情形。例如，手中可能持有過多的現金未利用、機器並非全部都在運轉…等情況。
12.資本週轉率＝銷貨淨額÷總資本
衡量企業投入之資本的運用情形，須與同業相比，數額愈大，代表資本利用率愈高。
13.毛利率＝銷貨毛利÷銷貨淨額
表示企業每$1的售價中，可賺取的毛利數額，故此比率愈高，代表企業「經營本業」的獲利能力愈大。
「毛利率愈高，不代表純益率愈高」，因為毛利率僅是扣除進貨成本，未扣除營業費用，有些企業經營本業的能力很強(毛利率高)，但從事副業卻產生很大的虧損(如：投資股票虧損，純益率很低)，故毛利率愈高，不代表此企業的純益愈高。
14.長期資金對固定資產比率＝(股東權益＋長期負債）÷固定資產
企業長期資金來源有二：股東出資及長期舉債，此公式之分子為長期資金的來源，分母為長期資金的用途。
此公式是衡量長期資金來源是否正常。若比率小於1，代表長期資金來源(分子)無法支應所有長期資金支出(分母)，即企業有「利用短期資金購買長期(固定)資產」之不正常現象。故正常而言，此比率應大於1。
15.固定資產對長期負債比率＝固定資產÷長期負債
企業在舉債時，常會以固定資產作抵押，如果無力償還債務，抵押的資產就會被拍賣，以便清償債務。此公式即是衡量債權人的保障額度大小，比率愈大，代表可用以抵押的固定資產數額愈大，對目前債權人愈有保障。
又稱營運資金比率，為短期償債能力的代表性指標，比率高者，代表短期償債能力強，高、低標準視企業情況及同業標準而定，一般應大於1為宜。
2.速動比率＝速動資產÷流動負債
速動資產=流動資產-存貨
又稱酸性測驗比率，亦為企業短期償債能力的代表性指標，但期間比流動比率更短，一般以1為宜。
3.股東權益報酬率(ROE)＝稅後淨利÷平均股東權益總額
衡量股東所投入之資本，於一年內所產生的效益。此比率愈大愈佳，代表股東可分得利潤愈高。
4.總資產報酬率(ROA)＝(稅後淨利＋利息費用)÷平均總資產
衡量企業投入資產後，一年內所產生的效益。數額愈大，代表企業之資產的效益愈大。
加入利息費用的原因，乃是因企業是否向外借款，與企業營運績效並無關聯，但利息費用卻會減少淨利，讓投資者誤以為企業經營績效差，因此利息費用應加回。
5.財務槓桿指數＝ROE÷ROA又稱槓桿比率，為衡量企業未來是舉債有利(外來資金，採長期借款方式)，或是股東自己出資較有利(自有資金，亦即發行股票)。若此比率大於1，代表舉債有利，舉債可創造槓桿效果。
例如：公司向債權人借入$100,000，年利率5%，故每年要支付$5,000利息費用，此$100,000投資後，每年賺取利潤若超過$5,000，亦即利潤支付利息費用後尚有剩餘，可用來分配給股東(盈餘分配)，即具有槓桿效果，代表舉債有利，因為股東不必多出資，即可多分配盈餘。
6.普通股每股盈餘(EPS)＝稅後淨利÷普通股加權流通在外股數
表示企業當年度淨利若全數用以發放股利，普通股每股可分得的數額。數額愈大，代表企業獲利性愈高，對股東愈有利。
7.本益比(P/E)＝每股市價÷EPS表示股東投入的成本(即市價)所能獲取的利潤數額(即盈餘)，投入成本愈少而能獲得更多利潤，對股東愈有利，故股東多半希望本益比愈低愈好。
8.純益率＝稅後淨利÷銷貨淨額
表示企業每$1的售價中，可賺取的淨利數額，故此比率愈高，代表企業獲利能力愈大，為分析獲利能力的重要指標。
9.存貨週轉率＝銷貨成本÷平均存貨
代表一年期內，存貨出售的次數，次數愈高愈有利，代表商品出售速度快，存貨愈不易被囤積。
10.應收帳款週轉率＝銷貨淨額÷平均應收帳款
為一年期內，應收帳款收現次數，次數愈高愈有利，代表企業收帳能力愈強，資金運用成效高。
11.總資產週轉率＝銷貨淨額÷資產總額
衡量企業的自有資產有無閒置的狀況，若此比率和同業相比，比率愈小，代表企業資產利用率不高，表示資產有閒置情形。例如，手中可能持有過多的現金未利用、機器並非全部都在運轉…等情況。
12.資本週轉率＝銷貨淨額÷總資本
衡量企業投入之資本的運用情形，須與同業相比，數額愈大，代表資本利用率愈高。
13.毛利率＝銷貨毛利÷銷貨淨額
表示企業每$1的售價中，可賺取的毛利數額，故此比率愈高，代表企業「經營本業」的獲利能力愈大。
「毛利率愈高，不代表純益率愈高」，因為毛利率僅是扣除進貨成本，未扣除營業費用，有些企業經營本業的能力很強(毛利率高)，但從事副業卻產生很大的虧損(如：投資股票虧損，純益率很低)，故毛利率愈高，不代表此企業的純益愈高。
14.長期資金對固定資產比率＝(股東權益＋長期負債）÷固定資產
企業長期資金來源有二：股東出資及長期舉債，此公式之分子為長期資金的來源，分母為長期資金的用途。
此公式是衡量長期資金來源是否正常。若比率小於1，代表長期資金來源(分子)無法支應所有長期資金支出(分母)，即企業有「利用短期資金購買長期(固定)資產」之不正常現象。故正常而言，此比率應大於1。
15.固定資產對長期負債比率＝固定資產÷長期負債
企業在舉債時，常會以固定資產作抵押，如果無力償還債務，抵押的資產就會被拍賣，以便清償債務。此公式即是衡量債權人的保障額度大小，比率愈大，代表可用以抵押的固定資產數額愈大，對目前債權人愈有保障。
Where to invest in times of inflation?
Where should you invest?
1. Commodities The key factors that determine the price of a commodity like gold for example (mine output for one) are different from factors that impact the value of other investments like shares and bonds. Investing in commodities therefore helps in diversifying the risk element in your portfolio. Not to suggest that they will surely do well but in inflationary times, but people do increase their allocations towards commodities. (Read more on gold)
Furthermore, gold can now be deposited with institutions like the State Bank of India. While this will earn you a very marginal interest, it will nevertheless take care of storage costs etc.
Investing in a commodity takes care of the risk arising due to erosion in value of the currency (since most currencies are priced in US Dollars).
2. Stocks
When it comes to beating inflation, few asset classes can better stocks. For example, over the last three years stocks have returned in excess of 15% p.a. (the BSE Sensex), beating inflation, which averaged about 5% - 6% p.a., by a very large margin. If one were to use a diversified mutual fund as a benchmark for stocks, the difference would have been even larger!
However, stocks carry significant risk, especially if one is attempting to build his/her own portfolio of stocks. For those who wish to minimise this risk, equity mutual funds are the best option.
For the more adventurous type, two sectors that are relatively immune to inflation are pharmaceuticals and software.
3. Inflation indexed bonds
Such bonds compensate you for the rise in inflation (or the decline in the purchasing power of the currency). Unfortunately in India such bonds are not on offer for us individuals (though the RBI has spoken about reintroducing them in today's policy). But with the RBI permitting Indians to invest abroad, one can always buy them in international markets.
4. Short term deposits and funds
These instruments will give you the required liquidity you need while ensuring that you do not lose out in case interest rates were to rise.
5. Property
Property is again a preferred avenue of investment as in such times prices tend to rise upwards in line with the increase in cost of construction. The only deterrent here is that the minimum amount you need to invest here is substantial and beyond the reach of most investors. An alternative can be real estate mutual funds, which are very popular in international markets.
1. Commodities The key factors that determine the price of a commodity like gold for example (mine output for one) are different from factors that impact the value of other investments like shares and bonds. Investing in commodities therefore helps in diversifying the risk element in your portfolio. Not to suggest that they will surely do well but in inflationary times, but people do increase their allocations towards commodities. (Read more on gold)
Furthermore, gold can now be deposited with institutions like the State Bank of India. While this will earn you a very marginal interest, it will nevertheless take care of storage costs etc.
Investing in a commodity takes care of the risk arising due to erosion in value of the currency (since most currencies are priced in US Dollars).
2. Stocks
When it comes to beating inflation, few asset classes can better stocks. For example, over the last three years stocks have returned in excess of 15% p.a. (the BSE Sensex), beating inflation, which averaged about 5% - 6% p.a., by a very large margin. If one were to use a diversified mutual fund as a benchmark for stocks, the difference would have been even larger!
However, stocks carry significant risk, especially if one is attempting to build his/her own portfolio of stocks. For those who wish to minimise this risk, equity mutual funds are the best option.
For the more adventurous type, two sectors that are relatively immune to inflation are pharmaceuticals and software.
3. Inflation indexed bonds
Such bonds compensate you for the rise in inflation (or the decline in the purchasing power of the currency). Unfortunately in India such bonds are not on offer for us individuals (though the RBI has spoken about reintroducing them in today's policy). But with the RBI permitting Indians to invest abroad, one can always buy them in international markets.
4. Short term deposits and funds
These instruments will give you the required liquidity you need while ensuring that you do not lose out in case interest rates were to rise.
5. Property
Property is again a preferred avenue of investment as in such times prices tend to rise upwards in line with the increase in cost of construction. The only deterrent here is that the minimum amount you need to invest here is substantial and beyond the reach of most investors. An alternative can be real estate mutual funds, which are very popular in international markets.
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